Futuros de BitcoinAspectos a considerar en su valoración ante una posible creación de un mercado europeo

Abstract

The development of the Bitcoin futures market in the US opens the door to a possible interest in creating a market in Europe. However, its development is limited by the difficulty of calculating the theoretical price of the future with respect to cash. The relationship between the two prices has been analysed in numerous articles, without them having been able to reach a clear conclusion as to which of the two prices dominates the pricing process. We examined a different approach to Bitcoins futures valuation, starting from the fact that the value of futures will be determined by the cost of carry, we considered as well some unpredictable variables, such as the difference in the number of trading days of the futures market vs the spot market, the extreme volatility of these markets, and the hardforks that can be encountered by Bitcoin holders but not by futures holders.