Cómo construir escenarios en ejercicios de prospectiva estratégica

Abstract

Strategic foresight facilitates the construction and analysis of future scenarios in which strategic objectives are going to be consolidated. In this article, a practical way of construction of this set of future scenarios is illustrated. There are classical methods that guide the way of building future scenarios, namely structural and morphological analysis. Unfortunately, due to the complexity and lack of flexibility, these methods are currently not in use. The process for the construction of scenarios that is described in this article belongs to the set of activities described in the Silver Lining methodology1. The article begins with the explanation of concepts such as the ‘current and future situation framework’ which is the way to use the SWOT technique to identify possible events; it continues by responding to questions such as the typical number of scenarios that should be produced, as well as the suitable number of events per scenario. The article ends by exposing some ideas about the concept of time and the need for connecting events to the "map of domains."