La metodología «Silver lining» para el desarrollo de ejercicios de prospectiva estratégica

  1. José Miguel Castillo Chamorro 1
  1. 1 Universidad Internacional de La Rioja
    info

    Universidad Internacional de La Rioja

    Logroño, España

    ROR https://ror.org/029gnnp81

Aldizkaria:
Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

ISSN: 2255-3479

Argitalpen urtea: 2020

Zenbakia: 15

Orrialdeak: 67-105

Mota: Artikulua

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Beste argitalpen batzuk: Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

Laburpena

Innovation consists of producing new and more effective solutions to old problems, thanks to the technological development. Nowadays, many prospective projects still use methods and techniques that belong to the past century, consequently many think-tanks are still solving old problems with old methods. In this article we are going to introduce an example of innovation in the field of the strategic analysis of future scenarios. The Silver lining methodology is designed to help strategic analysts envision and analyze the set of possible future scenarios that can influence upon the development of a strategic plan. Silver lining is an agil methodology that implement a metric to ensure the quality of prospective exercises as well as a fast obtention and elaboration of the data elicited from each human expert. We use Artificial Intelligence procedures to process human experts’ opinions and gathering all of them in the single answer of a group. The methodology has been validated by the performance of several prospective exercices led by the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies.

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