¿Qué indicadores económicos adelantan las recesiones en España?

  1. Máximo CAMACHO 1
  2. Salvador RAMALLO 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Murcia
    info

    Universidad de Murcia

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03p3aeb86

Revue:
Papeles de economía española

ISSN: 0210-9107

Année de publication: 2020

Número: 165

Pages: 33-51

Type: Article

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D'autres publications dans: Papeles de economía española

Résumé

We use classification trees to evaluate the usefulness of 270 monthly leading indicators to perform early inferences on business cycle recessions in Spain from 1971.01 to 2020.03. In the in-sample analysis, we find that the indicators give warning signals of recessions 3 and 6 months ahead with significant accuracy. In the pseudo real-time forecasting analysis, we find that financial indicators and indicators for measuring performance of construction played a special role to predict the Great Recession. However, to anticipate the severe economic consequences of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are better anticipated with trend indicators of output, with labor market indicators, and, to a lesser extent, with car sales indicators.

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Los autores agradecen a los proyectos PID2019-107192 GB-I00 (AEI/10.13039/501100011033) y al Grupo de Excelencia de la Región de Murcia (Fundación Séneca) 19884/GERM/15.

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